Why Smart Money Is Falls While Retail Panics — March 13, 2026

Morning Observations

I’m watching the S&P 500 closely today, as the 6,670 level is crucial. The tape is telling me that if we break below this, the next stop is 6,580. What worries me is the speed at which we’re approaching this level — it’s too fast, too soon. The Fear and Greed index is at 15, indicating extreme fear, which usually marks a short-term bottom. However, I’m not convinced yet. The level that matters to me today is 6,672 on the S&P 500.

The NIFTY 50 is down 0.92% at 23,422.15, and the SENSEX is down 0.78% at 75,444.22. Bank Nifty is the biggest loser, down 1.31% at 54,381.6. India VIX is up 0.56% at 21.64, indicating increased volatility. I’m keeping a close eye on the USD/INR, which is up 0.08% at 92.3.

This setup reminds me of August 2023 when NIFTY bounced hard from exactly the same zone. However, the global backdrop is different now, with rising crude oil prices and Middle East conflict weighing on investor sentiment.

NIFTY and India — What I See

The FII/DII data is concerning, with FIIs selling heavily in the past few sessions. DIIs, on the other hand, are buying, but not enough to offset the FII selling. The sector rotation is interesting, with IT and pharma stocks outperforming, while banks and financials are underperforming. I think this is a classic case of risk-off trade, where investors are seeking safety in defensives.

The level that matters to me on the NIFTY is 23,500. If we break below this, the next stop is 23,000. However, I’d be lying if I said I was confident here given the global backdrop. The options flow shows a mix of call and put writing, indicating a high level of uncertainty among traders.

US Markets — Reading the Tape

The S&P 500 is down 1.61% at 6,672.62, and the NASDAQ is down 1.7% at 22,311.98. The Dow Jones is down 2.16% at 46,677.85. The US 10Y Yield is up 1.43% at 4.27, indicating a rise in bond yields.

I was wrong about the S&P 500 yesterday — the chart actually shows a more complex setup than I initially thought. For more on this, check out my article: I Was Wrong About S&P 500 Today — Here Is What the Chart Actually Shows.

The smart money is positioning for a potential bounce in the S&P 500, but I think it’s too early to call a bottom. The sector rotation in the US is similar to India, with IT and pharma stocks outperforming, while financials and energy stocks are underperforming.

Bitcoin — Where I Stand

Bitcoin is up 1.09% at 71,278.01, and Ethereum is up 1.91% at 2,113.51. I think the $70K breakout will fail the first attempt. Too many leveraged longs are stacked just below that level — the market will hunt those stops first.

The options flow shows a mix of call and put writing, indicating a high level of uncertainty among traders. I’m watching the $68,000 level closely, as a break below this could lead to a sharp decline.

For more on the S&P 500 and why this move is different from what the media is saying, check out my article: S&P 500 Today: Why This Move Is Different From What Media Is Saying.

Levels I’m Using Today

The levels that matter to me today are 6,672 on the S&P 500, 23,500 on the NIFTY, and $68,000 on Bitcoin. If we break below these levels, the next stops are 6,580, 23,000, and $65,000 respectively.

However, I’d be lying if I said I was confident here given the global backdrop. The options flow shows a mix of call and put writing, indicating a high level of uncertainty among traders.

What Could Go Wrong

What worries me is the speed at which we’re approaching the key levels. It’s too fast, too soon. The Fear and Greed index is at 15, indicating extreme fear, which usually marks a short-term bottom. However, I’m not convinced yet.

The smart money is positioning for a potential bounce in the S&P 500, but I think it’s too early to call a bottom. The sector rotation in the US is similar to India, with IT and pharma stocks outperforming, while financials and energy stocks are underperforming.

Common Questions Today

Q: What is the S&P 500 today? A: The S&P 500 is down 1.61% at 6,672.62. Q: What is the NIFTY analysis today? A: The NIFTY is down 0.92% at 23,422.15, and the key level to watch is 23,500. Q: What is the Bitcoin price today? A: Bitcoin is up 1.09% at 71,278.01, and the key level to watch is $68,000.