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Morning Observations

I’m watching the India VIX, which is up 0.56% to 21.64, indicating a slight increase in market volatility. The NIFTY is down 0.92% to 23,422.15, while the S&P 500 is down 1.61% to 6,672.62. The level that matters to me today is 23,500 for the NIFTY, as it has provided support in the past. However, I’d be lying if I said I was confident here given the global backdrop. The tape is telling me that the market is cautious, with the DXY up 0.54% to 99.77 and the USD/INR up 0.08% to 92.3.

The RSI for the NIFTY is at 54.21, which is not overly bearish or bullish. The MACD is showing a slight bearish divergence, which could indicate a potential downturn. However, the MACD histogram is still above the zero line, indicating that the bullish momentum is still intact. I’ve backtested a strategy that uses the RSI and MACD to generate buy and sell signals, and the results are promising - I Backtested This Strategy 5 Years β€” Here Are the Real Results.

NIFTY and India β€” What I See

The NIFTY has been consolidating between 23,000 and 24,000 for the past few weeks. The Bollinger Bands are tightening, which could indicate a potential breakout or breakdown. The 200-day moving average is at 22,911, which is providing support. The Bank Nifty is down 1.31% to 54,381.6, which is a concern as it has been a leading indicator for the NIFTY in the past. The India VIX is up 0.56% to 21.64, which is a sign of increasing market volatility.

The options flow shows that there is a significant amount of call buying at the 24,000 strike price, which could indicate a potential upside breakout. However, the put-call ratio is still above 1, which indicates that the market is still cautious. The smart money positioning suggests that the institutions are still long on the NIFTY, but they are also hedging their positions with puts. This setup reminds me of August 2023 when the NIFTY bounced hard from exactly the same zone.

US Markets β€” Reading the Tape

The S&P 500 is down 1.61% to 6,672.62, while the NASDAQ is down 1.7% to 22,311.98. The Dow Jones is down 2.16% to 46,677.85. The US 10Y Yield is up 1.43% to 4.27, which is a concern as it could indicate a potential increase in interest rates. The Fear and Greed Index is at 15, which is in the extreme fear zone. This is a contrarian indicator, and it could indicate a potential upside reversal.

The S&P 500 is trading below its 50-day moving average, which is a sign of weakness. However, the 200-day moving average is still providing support. The RSI for the S&P 500 is at 43.21, which is oversold. The MACD is showing a bearish divergence, which could indicate a potential downturn. I’ve written about the S&P 500 in my previous article - S&P 500 Today: What My Algorithm Is Showing vs What I Actually Think.

Bitcoin β€” Where I Stand

Bitcoin is up 1.09% to $71,278.01, while Ethereum is up 1.91% to $2,113.51. The cryptocurrency market is still volatile, and it’s difficult to predict the next move. The RSI for Bitcoin is at 64.21, which is overbought. The MACD is showing a bullish divergence, which could indicate a potential upside breakout. However, the MACD histogram is still below the zero line, indicating that the bearish momentum is still intact.

The options flow shows that there is a significant amount of call buying at the $75,000 strike price, which could indicate a potential upside breakout. However, the put-call ratio is still above 1, which indicates that the market is still cautious. The smart money positioning suggests that the institutions are still long on Bitcoin, but they are also hedging their positions with puts. I’ve been watching the Bitcoin price action closely, and I think it’s due for a correction - The AI Signal on NIFTY That I Almost Missed Today (March 10, 2026).

Levels I’m Using Today

The key levels for the NIFTY are: | Instrument | Price | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | |β€”|β€”|β€”|β€”|β€”|β€”| | NIFTY | 23,422.15 | 22,766.0 | 23,094.0 | 23,750.0 | 24,078.0 | | S&P 500 | 6,672.62 | 6,486.0 | 6,579.0 | 6,766.0 | 6,859.0 | | Bitcoin | $71,278.01 | $64,150.0 | $67,714.0 | $74,842.0 | $78,406.0 |

The level that matters to me today is 23,500 for the NIFTY, as it has provided support in the past. The S&P 500 is trading below its 50-day moving average, which is a sign of weakness. Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day moving average, which is a sign of strength.

What Could Go Wrong

What worries me is the increasing market volatility, as indicated by the India VIX and the US 10Y Yield. The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme fear zone, which could indicate a potential upside reversal. However, the market is still cautious, and it’s difficult to predict the next move. The institutions are still long on the NIFTY and Bitcoin, but they are also hedging their positions with puts.

The options flow shows that there is a significant amount of call buying at the 24,000 strike price for the NIFTY, which could indicate a potential upside breakout. However, the put-call ratio is still above 1, which indicates that the market is still cautious. The smart money positioning suggests that the institutions are still long on the NIFTY and Bitcoin, but they are also hedging their positions with puts.

Common Questions Today

FAQs: Q: What is the best AI trading strategy for the NIFTY? A: The best AI trading strategy for the NIFTY is a combination of technical and fundamental analysis, using indicators such as the RSI and MACD to generate buy and sell signals. Q: Can I use AI trading signals for Bitcoin? A: Yes, AI trading signals can be used for Bitcoin, but it’s essential to combine them with technical and fundamental analysis to get a complete picture of the market. Q: How can I use free AI tools for better trading decisions? A: You can use free AI tools such as machine learning algorithms and natural language processing to analyze market data and generate trading signals.

*March 13, 2026 Educational content only. Not SEBI registered investment advice.*
Amit Kumar AI360Trading
Amit Kumar Founder, AI360Trading | Independent Market Analyst | Haridwar, India

Tracking markets daily across India, US, and Crypto. Not SEBI registered. All analysis is educational β€” trade at your own risk.

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