I Backtested This Strategy 5 Years — Here Are the Real Results

The Consensus View (And Why It’s Wrong)

The consensus view right now is that the market is due for a significant correction, with many analysts pointing to the recent rally in the S&P 500 and Bitcoin as unsustainable. They argue that the economic fundamentals don’t support the current prices, and that a pullback is inevitable. But I think this view is wrong. The data shows that the market is actually more resilient than people think, and that the current rally has more legs to it.

The S&P 500 is sitting at 6,700, and the NIFTY is at 23,639. These numbers matter more than people think right now. The tape is telling me that the market is still in a bullish trend, despite the recent volatility. What I’m watching for is a breakout above the 6,800 level in the S&P 500, which could signal a continuation of the rally.

What the Data Shows Instead

The data shows that the current rally is driven by a combination of factors, including a strong earnings season, improving economic fundamentals, and a surge in risk appetite among investors. The AI algorithms are reading the current market signals as a buy, with many of the technical indicators pointing to a continuation of the rally.

One of the key indicators I’m watching is the RSI, which just hit 64 - entering overbought territory. Historically, at this level, the NIFTY either consolidates 3-5 days or shakes out weak hands with a quick 1.5% dip first. This is a key level to watch, as a breakout above 65 could signal a strong continuation of the rally.

I’ve been using AI to filter out bad trades, and it’s been working well. For example, I wrote about How I Use AI to Filter 90% of Bad Trades Before They Happen. This approach has helped me avoid some of the recent volatility and stay focused on the key levels that matter.

Market By Market Breakdown

Let’s take a look at the key markets and see what the data shows.

The S&P 500 is currently trading at 6,700, with key levels at 6,513 and 6,888. The NIFTY is at 23,639, with key levels at 22,977 and 24,301. Bitcoin is at $70,405, with key levels at $63,365 and $77,446.

The levels that actually matter today are the support levels in the S&P 500 and NIFTY. If these levels hold, it could signal a continuation of the rally. But if they break, it could lead to a significant pullback.

The key levels table is as follows: | Instrument | Price | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | |—|—|—|—|—|—| | S&P 500 | 6,700 | 6,513 | 6,607 | 6,794 | 6,888 | | NIFTY | 23,639 | 22,977 | 23,308 | 23,970 | 24,301 | | Bitcoin | $70,405 | $63,365 | $66,885 | $73,926 | $77,446 |

The Levels That Actually Matter

The levels that actually matter today are the support levels in the S&P 500 and NIFTY. If these levels hold, it could signal a continuation of the rally. But if they break, it could lead to a significant pullback.

I’ve been watching the options flow, and it shows that smart money is positioning for a breakout above the 6,800 level in the S&P 500. This could be a key catalyst for the next leg of the rally.

The level that matters today in the NIFTY is 23,500. This looks like support - but I’d be lying if I said I was confident here given the global backdrop. This setup reminds me of August 2023 when the NIFTY bounced hard from exactly the same zone.

What Smart Money Is Doing

Smart money is positioning for a breakout above the 6,800 level in the S&P 500. They’re also accumulating long positions in Bitcoin, with a target price of $80,000.

The fintech and AI company stocks, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google, are also seeing significant buying interest. These stocks have been leading the rally, and it’s likely that they will continue to outperform in the near term.

OpenAI is also having a significant impact on the market, with its AI models being used by many traders and investors. I’ve been following the developments in the AI space, and I think it’s an area that will continue to grow and evolve in the coming months.

Bottom Line

The bottom line is that the market is more resilient than people think, and the current rally has more legs to it. The key levels to watch are the support levels in the S&P 500 and NIFTY, and the breakout level above 6,800 in the S&P 500.

Retail traders can use free AI tools, such as those available on GitHub, to make better trading decisions. For example, they can use machine learning algorithms to analyze the market data and identify key trends and patterns.

I’ve been writing about the AI signal on the NIFTY, and how it’s been working well. For example, I wrote about The AI Signal on NIFTY That I Almost Missed Today (March 10, 2026). This approach has helped me stay ahead of the curve and make more informed trading decisions.

Reader Questions

FAQs: Q: What is the best AI trading platform for beginners? A: There are many AI trading platforms available, but some of the best ones for beginners include TradingView, MetaTrader, and Zerodha. Q: How do I use AI to trade the S&P 500? A: You can use AI to trade the S&P 500 by using machine learning algorithms to analyze the market data and identify key trends and patterns. You can also use AI-powered trading platforms to execute trades automatically. Q: What is the best way to learn AI trading? A: The best way to learn AI trading is to start with the basics and gradually move on to more advanced topics. You can use online resources, such as tutorials and webinars, to learn AI trading. You can also join online communities and forums to connect with other traders and learn from their experiences.